Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory Tuesday, reaching $94,205 and capping an 11.8% gain over six days.
The move coincided with a broad asset rally following the White House’s softened language on Federal Reserve policy and U.S.-China trade tariffs.
Powell safe, tariff chill
President Trump stated Tuesday that he had “no intention” of dismissing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, despite reiterating his desire for more aggressive interest rate reductions.
The remarks from the Oval Office marked a departure from previous years when Trump openly criticized Powell and floated a legal but untested demotion to Governor.
The Treasury Department echoed the shift in tone. Secretary Scott Bessent signaled potential easing in tariff barriers with China, stating that while “trade talks will be a slog,” a “de-escalation in the very near future” is expected.
The statement was the administration’s first to raise prospects of tariff rollback since the 2024 election. Average U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports remain at 145%, while reciprocal Chinese duties stand at 125%, both sharply above pre-trade war levels of 21 and 17%, respectively.
U.S. equity benchmarks surged in response. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% on April 22, the Dow added 2.6%, and the Nasdaq closed up 2.7%, notching their largest daily gains since the 2023 regional banking stress, albeit after record declines.
Bitcoin rally decouples from macro
Bitcoin’s rally unfolded alongside these developments but showed minimal correlation with other major assets. Over the past week, data revealed only mild ties with oil, gold, and the S&P 500.
However, the recent breakout above the $88,000 resistance, now acting as support, occurred with relatively low accompanying volume, indicating the move may be driven more by price acceptance than buying aggression.
Short-term momentum remains intact, with the one-day moving average sloping upward beneath spot. However, raw volume continues to drift lower, suggesting traders are not aggressively chasing the move.
Volatility remains compressed, with intra-day standard deviation translating to an annualized 1.9% daily rate. That level of calm is atypical for Bitcoin, whose daily realized volatility often exceeds 4%.
The narrow bands give the appearance of stability but can precede sharp repricing. The current low-volatility environment may present tempting leverage conditions for risk managers, though history cautions against prolonged complacency in crypto markets.
Broader implications and repricing risks
The synchronized market uptick adds $1.8 trillion to global equity values in 24 hours, yet the dissonance with macro fundamentals is notable.
The IMF’s recent downgrade of global growth to 2.8% in 2025 was partially attributed to trade policy frictions. As such, any tangible timetable for tariff reductions may serve as a more durable catalyst than verbal signaling.
At the same time, Powell’s Fed faces its own balancing act. The March FOMC meeting minutes revealed a preference for holding rates steady amid cautious optimism. Trump’s statement, though measured, applies renewed public pressure for policy accommodation.
The legal threshold for removing a Fed chair remains unclear, but the political subtext adds a layer of complexity to upcoming monetary decisions.
Treasury yields edged lower following the president’s remarks, and the safe-haven Swiss franc strengthened further, hitting a decade-high 0.83 CHF/USD. According to ING’s Chris Turner, the franc’s ascent suggests markets are hedging against longer-term stagnation, even as equities and crypto exhibit bullish behavior.
Bitcoin’s decoupling from traditional asset classes highlights its increasing role as a monetary hedge during episodes of policy ambiguity. BTC’s calm upward grind may continue if tariff normalization accelerates and central bank autonomy holds.
Looking ahead
While crypto traders digest the macro overtures, key inflection points remain. Markets await any concrete action on trade from the USTR or the Commerce Department. Within the Fed, internal resistance to policy politicization may surface in future meetings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s proximity to the psychological $95,000 threshold offers a technical litmus test for bullish conviction.
For now, the digital asset appears buoyed by a combination of macro repricing, low volatility, and structural flows. With ETF-driven demand and halving narratives lessened but still in play, traders watching for continuation will likely want confirmation through expanding volume and a clean breach of $95,000.
Whether crypto’s latest advance holds may depend less on fundamentals and more on whether this week’s tone shift proves durable policy or a temporary reprieve.
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